Punjab University Journal of Mathematics, Vol 50, No 4 (2018)

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Forecasting Rainfall in Potohar Region of Pakistan in the Perspective of Drought

Samreen Fatima, Mehwish Shafi Khan


In this study, we have analyzed rainfall data from 2000 to 2014 for Potohar region that is, Chakwal, Jhelum and Rawalpindi. Importance of this region cannot be denied as this region is rich in agriculture. Crop situation in the region depends completely on rainfall on suitable timings. Absence of or untimely rainfall lead to drought situation in Potohar. The region has faced severe to moderate drought condition in the history. Therefore, study of pattern of rainfall in the region is beneficial for agriculture sector in Pakistan. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model has been applied in order to study the rainfall pattern from 2000 to 2014. Furthermore, validation of the model is done on the data from 2015 to 2016. Afterwards, future prediction has also been done using parameters obtained from historical data. Forecasted values obtain from the suggested model of rainfall will help farmers and decision makers for sowing crop on appropriate time

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